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Home>Columns>John C. Dvorak>Grim Macintosh Market Share Forebodes Crisis
John C. Dvorak
Grim Macintosh Market Share Forebodes Crisis
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Grim Macintosh Market Share Forebodes Crisis
12.28.04
Total posts: 419
by John C. Dvorak
The Mac platform is essentially stagnant. That becomes obvious when you look at the declining market share numbers—not from research firms, but from the W3C, which monitors online activity. As of December 2004, the Mac share as measured by online activity is 2.7 percent (Linux is 3.1), with all the rest going to various flavors of Windows. I'm now convinced that this stems mostly from Apple 's inability to make the Mac a commodity computer by pricing it to compete with PCs made inexpensively in China and selling with razor-thin margins. Here are the reasons Apple can't sustain its position.
The company figures it has certain market niches locked down. This includes computer users in advertising agencies, news bureaus, and various professional organizations as well as creative artists and writers. I also count an odd, die-hard faction of true believers, but these people are inconsequential except in online forums, where they make a fuss whenever anyone discusses the Mac. They probably hurt the Mac community more than anyone by creating an unfair crackpot image that gets associated with the machine.
CEO Steve Jobs' star persona makes the situation worse. His attention to the Apple flagship has been eroded by the success of Pixar, and more recently, by the iPod and iTunes initiatives. None of these has anything to do with the Macintosh . Keeping it on track is a full-time task—Jobs cannot be in the computer business, the movie business, and the music business and make them all successful. You see the results. Market share for the Mac is crap.
Much of the problem arises from the psychology created by the overpriced iPod. And Mac users who buy the players contribute to the problem by encouraging the company to maintain its high-margin death march.
Apple, seeing it can still use strong marketing to sell high–margin, high-status items, will continue to think it can do so with the Macintosh. What goes on at Apple planning sessions when market-share issues come up? Some executives probably proclaim that three percent of this market is "huge!!" Others nod their heads in agreement. And indeed, three percent is huge. But at some point (which may have been reached already), declining market share creates a relative lack of interest, and eventually, discontinuance. The Amiga fell prey to this.
I've been thinking about this marketing dilemma ever since seeing those w3C numbers, and I've concluded that the real problem with Mac marketing is a weird logical inconsistency that can only worsen the product's market situation. In fact, unless something changes drastically, I can't see the circumstances improving. Ironically, this logical inconsistency is also what makes the Mac great. There's a conundrum in choosing to go with simplicity versus complexity.
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